2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,143 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 109 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,370/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$397
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$288
Net cashflow
$-96/mo
Annual
$-1,148/yr
Cap rate
6.06%
Cash-on-cash
-0.84%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (11.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.1% below list).
It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-P2R0H98YBFB4R9
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29