25834 Northpark Pine Dr

Porter, TX 77365

$230,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,888 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,934/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$786
• HOA: −$57
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-521/mo
• Annual: $-6,251/yr
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.71%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookwood Forest El (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 942 students, 84% FRL); Woodridge Forest Middle (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,288 students, 64% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.4% in Porter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.