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25834 Northpark Pine Dr
F Composite 31.25
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +10.1/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.2/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.4/10.0
  • Schools +3.1/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.9/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$230,000

25834 Northpark Pine Dr · Porter, TX 77365
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market
Built 2020 Good condition 4,573 sqft lot Garage $122/sqft · 6% below area Est $244k · 6% under $57/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming property in New Caney schools! This home features a kitchen and dining area that overlooks a spacious living area, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find secondary bedrooms and a primary ensuite with bath and walk-in closet. The property boasts great standard features such as granite countertops, 42 inch cabinets, tankless water heater, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, and coach lights. With a lot size of 4574 square feet and built in 2020, this home is ideal for investors or home owners looking for a modern and well-maintained property. Don't miss out on this opportunity! Home is being sold as is.

Key facts

  • Spacious living area
  • Walk-in closet
  • Primary ensuite

Tags

SPACIOUS LIVING AREAPRIMARY ENSUITEWALK-IN CLOSETGRANITE COUNTERTOPS42 INCH CABINETSTANKLESS WATER HEATER

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (28.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (15.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $166k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.4% in Porter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Brookwood Forest El (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 942 students, 84% FRL); Woodridge Forest Middle (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,288 students, 64% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 9 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $165,646 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.84%
Cap rate
3.58%
Cash-on-cash
-9.71%
DSCR
0.57
GRM
9.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$244,061
List price
$230,000
Delta
0.38%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
19910 Park Mesa Ln 0.36mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,897 (+0%) 3mo $289,900 $153 75
26155 Woodberry Park Ln 0.46mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,897 (+0%) 1mo $294,900 $155 72
26356 Jasper Park Ln 0.32mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,785 (-6%) 2mo $288,900 $162 70
19907 Park Mesa Ln 0.34mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,003 (+6%) 2mo $289,900 $145 67
19926 Park Mesa Ln 0.37mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,003 (+6%) 3mo $297,900 $149 65
26360 Jasper Park Ln 0.33mi 3/2.5 1,678 (-11%) 2mo $279,900 $167 65
26392 Jasper Park Ln 0.38mi 3/2.5 1,678 (-11%) 3mo $284,900 $170 61
26159 Woodberry Park Ln 0.47mi 3/2.5 1,678 (-11%) 1mo $284,900 $170 59
26211 Park Cove Ln 0.49mi 3/2.5 1,678 (-11%) 3mo $264,900 $158 56
25605 Dartmaker Ct 0.71mi 3/2.0 2,023 (+7%) 3mo $329,990 $163 51
20722 Oakhurst Crk 0.64mi 3/2.0 2,096 (+11%) 2mo $330,000 $157 48
20795 Oakhurst Trails Dr 0.65mi 4/2.0 (+1) 2,142 (+14%) 2mo $293,000 $137 38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.6%
Equity multiple
-0.13×
Total profit
$-72,729
Equity at exit
$34,294
10-year hold
IRR
-60.6%
Equity multiple
-0.79×
Total profit
$-115,142
Equity at exit
$19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
41 active · 17 under contract
Months of supply
9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$284,900 ($157/sqft)
Median days on market
61 d
This list price
2% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-17.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77365

Home prices YoY
-33.0%
Rents YoY
1.6%
Active inventory
1168
Price-to-rent
9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,934 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,206
Tax from tax record
$690 /mo · $8,282/yr
Insurance
$96
HOA
$57
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$406
Net cashflow
$-521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594
Max offer price $165,646
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-391 -5% $-456 +0% $-521 +5% $-586 +10% $-651
Rent -10% $-674 -5% $-597 +0% $-521 +5% $-445 +10% $-368
Rate -1.0pp $-405 -0.5pp $-462 base $-521 +0.5pp $-581 +1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$57,500
Closing costs
$6,900
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
25606 Northpark Palm Dr Porter, TX 3.0 2.0 1373 $1,795 $1.31 73d 1 0.26mi
25407 Northpark Lake Dr Porter, TX 3.0 2.0 1396 $1,745 $1.25 70d 1 0.33mi
25545 Sorters McClellan Rd Porter, TX 2.0 2.0 1294 $1,949 $1.51 60d 1 0.34mi
20047 Briarcliff Park Ln Porter, TX 4.0 2.5 1785 $2,035 $1.14 64d 1 0.42mi
25601 Thistle Valley Ct Porter, TX 4.0 2.0 2300 $2,295 $1.00 93d 1 0.67mi
24770 Stowbridge Dr Porter, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1109 $2,349 $2.12 0d 34 0.73mi
21919 Northpark Dr Kingwood, TX 3.0 1.0–2.0 1005 $1,962 $1.95 1d 40 0.98mi
300 Forest Center Dr Kingwood, TX 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1062 $2,114 $1.99 1d 30 1.18mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3047 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,583 $1.05 48d 1 1.33mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3047 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,583 $1.05 38d 1 1.33mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 233 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,532 $1.02 23d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 4207 Kingwood, TX 2.0 2.0 1245 $1,500 $1.20 30d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 306 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,548 $1.03 32d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Apt 14301 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,979 $1.32 36d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 510 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,548 $1.03 33d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 313 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,532 $1.02 32d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 306 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,532 $1.02 0d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 9101 Kingwood, TX 2.0 2.0 1245 $1,379 $1.11 32d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3228 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,578 $1.05 1d 1 1.38mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 12108 Kingwood, TX 3.0 2.0 1503 $1,879 $1.25 43d 1 1.38mi
206 Kellington Dr Unit 5201 Kingwood, TX 2.0 2.0 1245 $1,275 $1.02 73d 1 1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Association annual fee $680Curbs in community
Financial info
Lease considered
HOA & community
Northpark Woods HOA with an annual feeHOA fee paid annually

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyFractional ownershipSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2020
Construction
Cement sidingSlab foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2020
Exterior features
Back yard fenceConcrete road surfaceSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveDisposalENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom (second level) — 14 x 14Bedroom (second level) — 11 x 10Bedroom (second level) — 11 x 10
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHVAC with energy-efficient features
Interior features
Granite countersKitchen and family room combinationSeparate showerTub with showerCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsRadiant attic barrier
Laundry & utility
Electric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

HOA detail $57/mo · $684/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 104 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $230,000 Active 102 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 101 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 100 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $230,000 Active 99 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 94 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $245,000 Active 93 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $245,000 Active 91 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 89 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $245,000 Active 85 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 78 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,000 Active 76 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $245,000 Active 75 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $245,000 Active 74 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 72 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,000 Active 71 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,000 Active 70 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 69 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 68 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 67 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 66 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 65 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,000 Active 62 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $245,000 Active 61 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 59 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 57 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 56 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 51 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
  45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,000 Active 44 DOM
  46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
  47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
  48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 38 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$8,282 · $690/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$8,282 · $690/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,214
− Mortgage interest
−$12,884
− Property taxes
−$8,282
− Insurance
−$1,150
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,857
− Management
−$1,857
− HOA
−$684
− Depreciation
−$6,691
Taxable loss
−$10,191
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,446
After-tax cash flow
$-3,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in New Caney schools is move-in ready with good condition and standard features. Consider painting the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
  • Both Replace ceiling fans — Modernizes and improves air circulation
F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brookwood Forest El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Woodridge Forest Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High West Fork H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
New Caney ISD
NCES district ID
4832400
Math proficiency
31% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency
32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$55,380
Composite
27.97/100
National rank
#6857
State rank
#570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County
Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population
46,418
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
46,418
Household income
$95,702
Rent vs Own
22.9% rent · 77.1% own
Severe rent burden
4% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
713,896 people
By 2030
805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040
992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050
1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075
1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100
1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada
Languages at home
59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin
Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing
+7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+18.3% since first listed
23 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-26 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-03-31 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-03-12 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-03-01 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-28 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2026-02-27 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-15 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-12 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-10-15 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-09-05 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-08-15 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-05-29 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-02 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-02 Coming Soon HARMLS
  • 2025-01-16 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-07-25 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-05-11 Rental Removed $2,150 HARMLS
  • 2024-03-14 Listed for Rent $2,150 HARMLS
  • 2020-09-29 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2020-09-01 Pending HARMLS
  • 2020-08-20 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
  • 2020-08-03 Price Changed $207,540 HARMLS
  • 2020-07-06 Listed $207,040 HARMLS

Property tax history

+54.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,282 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…