41 Thrush Ln

Lyndon, VT 05851

$136,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $746/mo
• Annual: $8,957/yr
• Cap rate: 12.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.44%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $38,220

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($944 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $136k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.