41 Thrush Ln · Lyndon, VT 05851

$136,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1993 $94/sqft · 42% above area Est $96k · 42% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Carefully refined and thoughtfully updated, this 1993 manufactured home offers an elevated take on low-maintenance living. The spacious three-bedroom, two-bath layout features an open design enhanced by abundant natural light through the new windows, updated flooring, fresh interior paint, and modern fixtures throughout. A mini-split system provides efficient, year-round comfort. A standout feature is the beautiful sunroom, offering additional living space with a bright, inviting atmosphere suited to a variety of uses. The exterior is equally well-considered with its paved driveway, carport and workshop ideal for storage or hobby space. Set within the Woodland Heights 55+ community, just outside of town, the property offers a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities and services. Lot rent is $398.00 per month, and park approval is required prior to occupancy.

Key facts

• Paved driveway
• Carport
• Sunroom

Tags

• SUNROOM
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• CARPORT
• WORKSHOP
• WOODLAND HEIGHTS COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($944 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $136k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $128,310 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.44%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,275
• List price: $136,500
• Delta: 41.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $121,845
• Equity at exit: $122,970

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.41×
• Total profit: $321,353
• Equity at exit: $265,189

Cash invested: $38,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $730/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $136,500

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,125
• Closing costs: $4,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6169 Memorial Dr Unit 2 Lyndonville, VT	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,500 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,500 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,500 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,500 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $136,500 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,500 Active with Contract 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $136,500 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Carefully refined and thoughtfully updated, this 1993 manufactured home offers an elevated take on low-maintenance living. The spacious three-bedroom, two-bath layout features an open design enhanced by abundant natural light through the new windows, updated flooring, fresh interior paint, and modern fixtures throughout. A mini-split system provides efficient, year-round comfort. A standout feature is the beautiful sunroom, offering additional living space with a bright, inviting atmosphere suited to a variety of uses. The exterior is equally well-considered with its paved driveway, carport and workshop ideal for storage or hobby space. Set within the Woodland Heights 55+ community, just outside of town, the property offers a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities and services. Lot rent is $398.00 per month, and park approval is required prior to occupancy.

17. 2018-03-01
    soldstatus $59,900
18. 2018-02-28
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Here is a one owner double wide mobile home on a nice lot with an attached carport and storage shed. The big eat-in style kitchen has lots of cabinets. There are a formal dining room, a large living room, 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big enclosed porch. There are vaulted ceilings, skylights, and lots of closet space. The home is located in a senior park - must be 55 or older. No dogs allowed. New owner must be approved by park owner.

19. 2018-02-28
    soldstatus $59,900 Closed

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Here is a one owner double wide mobile home on a nice lot with an attached carport and storage shed. The big eat-in style kitchen has lots of cabinets. There are a formal dining room, a large living room, 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big enclosed porch. There are vaulted ceilings, skylights, and lots of closet space. The home is located in a senior park - must be 55 or older. No dogs allowed. New owner must be approved by park owner.

20. 2018-01-15
    historical Active with Contract 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Here is a one owner double wide mobile home on a nice lot with an attached carport and storage shed. The big eat-in style kitchen has lots of cabinets. There are a formal dining room, a large living room, 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big enclosed porch. There are vaulted ceilings, skylights, and lots of closet space. The home is located in a senior park - must be 55 or older. No dogs allowed. New owner must be approved by park owner.

21. 2018-01-12
    historical Active with Contract
22. 2018-01-01
    listed $59,900 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Here is a one owner double wide mobile home on a nice lot with an attached carport and storage shed. The big eat-in style kitchen has lots of cabinets. There are a formal dining room, a large living room, 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big enclosed porch. There are vaulted ceilings, skylights, and lots of closet space. The home is located in a senior park - must be 55 or older. No dogs allowed. New owner must be approved by park owner.

23. 2018-01-01
    listed $59,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Here is a one owner double wide mobile home on a nice lot with an attached carport and storage shed. The big eat-in style kitchen has lots of cabinets. There are a formal dining room, a large living room, 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a big enclosed porch. There are vaulted ceilings, skylights, and lots of closet space. The home is located in a senior park - must be 55 or older. No dogs allowed. New owner must be approved by park owner.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,662 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$932/yr (+$78/mo · 127.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,646
• − Property taxes: −$730
• − Insurance: −$682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,971
• Taxable income: $7,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,711
• After-tax cash flow: $7,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lyndon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+127.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $136,500 PrimeMLS
• 2018-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2018-02-28 Sold (MLS) $59,900 PrimeMLS
• 2018-02-28 Sold (MLS) $59,900 PrimeMLS
• 2018-01-15 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2018-01-12 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2018-01-01 Listed $59,900 PrimeMLS
• 2018-01-01 Listed $59,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $730 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.