626 Maple Ln

Garner, NC 27603

$700,000D-

9 bd · 3.9 ba · 1,705 sqft · Built 1964 · MultiFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$680
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,031
• Net cashflow: $-471/mo
• Annual: $-5,658/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-471 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-157/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $617k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $491k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $491k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,421 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Smith Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 530 students, 68% FRL); North Garner Middle (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #299 of 475 statewide, top 64%, 975 students, 57% FRL); Garner High (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 1,683 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 30% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $515k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Garner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,911/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 1914% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?