626 Maple Ln · Garner, NC 27603

$700,000

9 bd · 3.9 ba · 1,705 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1964 1.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

INVESTOR ALERT!!! Call or text listing agent to schedule showing to see these occupied duplexes! 2 adjoined duplexes for sale for a total of 4 units! Priced BELOW tax value! Are you looking for an investment property to add to your portfolio? This income producing property is in a fantastic location and looking for it's next owner. This 8 bed, 4 bath property is perfect for adding to your income stream. NO HOA or restrictive covenants, and on 1.24 acres!! All 4 units are on month to month leases. Call listing agent for details.

Key facts

• 1.24 acres
• No hoa
• 1.24 acre lot

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY
• NO HOA
• 1.24 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 3,408
• Financial info: 4 total units (multifamily); Owner responsible for HVAC maintenance, management, and repairs
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking with 8 spaces; Carport; Gravel parking area
• Utilities: Septic tank for sewer; Shared well water
• Home design: Duplex; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; 1.24-acre lot; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 bedrooms total
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric range and refrigerator included; Hardwood, luxury vinyl, and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-471 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-157/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $617k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $491k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $491k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Garner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,421 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Smith Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 530 students, 68% FRL); North Garner Middle (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #299 of 475 statewide, top 64%, 975 students, 57% FRL); Garner High (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 1,683 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 30% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,911/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 1914% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $515k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $491,100 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-150,555
• Equity at exit: $104,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-198,087
• Equity at exit: $60,523

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27603

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 493
• Price-to-rent: 35.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,911 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,664/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,031
• Net cashflow: $-471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,508

Max offer price $616,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-75	-5% $-273	+0% $-471	+5% $-670	+10% $-868
Rent	-10% $-859	-5% $-665	+0% $-471	+5% $-278	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-293	base $-471	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-837

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	—	$4,911
Total (3 units)			$4,911

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $700,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $700,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $700,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $700,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $700,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $700,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $700,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $700,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $700,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $700,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $700,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $700,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $700,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $700,000 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $700,000 Active 177 DOM
16. 2025-12-15
    price $700,000
17. 2025-12-05
    listed $654,900 Active
18. 2024-12-05
    historical
19. 2024-09-04
    listed $654,900 Active
20. 2024-09-04
    historical
21. 2024-09-03
    price $649,995
22. 2024-07-12
    price $660,000
23. 2024-07-07
    listed $675,000 Active
24. 2024-05-09
    status Pending
25. 2024-05-08
    historical
26. 2024-03-21
    status Active
27. 2024-01-20
    status Pending
28. 2024-01-11
    listed $675,000 Active
29. 2021-05-19
    soldstatus $515,000 Closed
30. 2021-05-19
    soldstatus $515,000
31. 2021-05-19
    soldstatus $515,000
32. 2021-04-21
    status Pending
33. 2021-03-05
    listed $525,000 Active
34. 2021-03-05
    listed $525,000
35. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus $375,000 Closed
36. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus $375,000
37. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus $375,000
38. 2019-12-06
    historical Contingent
39. 2019-12-02
    listed $375,000 Active
40. 2019-12-02
    listed $375,000
41. 2000-07-31
    soldstatus $255,000
42. 1995-06-16
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,664 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,740 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,076/yr (+$90/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$4,664
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,715
• − Management: −$4,715
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$18,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,376
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Garner

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #3421

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A- Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 55,242
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 53,972
• Household income: $90,484
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.00%
• Current HPI: 243.2963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+548.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $700,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $654,900 TMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $654,900 TMLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $649,995 TMLS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $660,000 TMLS
• 2024-07-07 Listed $675,000 TMLS
• 2024-05-09 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2024-03-21 Relisted — TMLS
• 2024-01-20 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-01-11 Listed $675,000 TMLS
• 2021-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-19 Sold (MLS) $515,000 AMLSNC
• 2021-05-19 Sold (MLS) $515,000 TMLS
• 2021-04-21 Pending — TMLS
• 2021-03-05 Listed $525,000 AMLSNC
• 2021-03-05 Listed $525,000 TMLS
• 2019-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) $375,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-12-31 Sold (MLS) $375,000 TMLS
• 2019-12-06 Contingent — TMLS
• 2019-12-02 Listed $375,000 AMLSNC
• 2019-12-02 Listed $375,000 TMLS
• 2000-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,664 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.