6038 Bagley Ave

Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$979,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Built 1947 · MultiFamily · Active · 682 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,546/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,139
• Tax + insurance: −$845
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$955
• Net cashflow: $-2,392/mo
• Annual: $-28,704/yr
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.46%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $274,372

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $980k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-598/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $557k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $455k (53.6% below list).
• It's been on market 682 days — a 12% lower offer ($862k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $455k (53.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 15 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $270k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $415k; list at $980k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,546/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1057% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 682 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?