34 Split Rail Ln

Lake, PA 18436

$349,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,158 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$194
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-844/mo
• Annual: $-10,132/yr
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.69%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-844 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (42.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (40.4% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen El Sch (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #498 of 1,518 statewide, top 33%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Western Wayne Ms (math 21% / reading 61%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 411 students, 57% FRL); Western Wayne Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 545 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.