34 Split Rail Ln · Lake, PA 18436

$349,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1991 0.62 ac lot Est $343k · at est. $194/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on an oversized Hideout lot (. 62 acres) sits this 4 bedrooms, 3 bath contemporary saltbox home. Greenbelt in rear of property offers lots of privacy, maintenance free vinyl siding, paved driveway has plenty of parking, sunken living room, brick fireplace and spacious loft. Located in the amenity rich community The Hideout!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Stone gas fireplace
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STONE GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential single-family use
• Financial info: Association fee billed annually
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (association fee covers security and snow removal); Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, recreation facilities, fitness center, gated security and many community features

Exterior

• Lot: Interior, wooded lot with rolling and sloped terrain (pie-shaped); Private road frontage on a paved, privately maintained road with a road maintenance agreement; Lot dimensions approximately 284 x 163 x 288 (0.62 acres)
• Parking: Five off-street parking spaces on site; Open asphalt parking (no garage)
• Security: 24-hour security and gated community with guard
• Utilities: Propane available; Electricity available and connected; Water connected; Public sewer; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Ground-level entry into family or living room; Views of Roamingwood Lake; Located in a gated community (The Hideout)
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Private entrance; Rain gutters; Other exterior features; Shed(s) and additional storage; Fuel tank(s)
• Pool & community facilities: Community in-ground outdoor pool (association); Community amenities include clubhouse, tennis and sport courts, playground, park, golf, fitness center, fishing, restaurant, racquetball, game courts, recreation room, meeting/party rooms, dog park, beach access and powered boats allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Self-cleaning oven; Electric range / Electric cooktop; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Granite countertops; Eat-in kitchen and breakfast bar
• Basement: Full, finished basement with interior entry plus walk-out/walk-up and exterior entry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Fireplace: One gas fireplace with stone surround, raised hearth and glass doors (living room)
• Heating & cooling: Has heating and cooling; Baseboard heating; Zoned heating; Propane and electric heating options; Ceiling fans; Wall/window and window air-conditioning units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings and cathedral ceiling details; Open floor plan; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fans throughout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup; Main level laundry, inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-844 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (42.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (40.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen El Sch (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #498 of 1,518 statewide, top 33%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Western Wayne Ms (math 21% / reading 61%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 411 students, 57% FRL); Western Wayne Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 545 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,850 (42.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.69%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,122
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Hidden Lake Dr	0.24mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,094 (-3%)	2mo	$375,000	$179	78
85 Cliffwood Rd	0.55mi	3/3.0	2,135 (-1%)	6mo	$390,000	$183	67
4 Splitrail Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (-7%)	21mo	$325,000	$163	57
3767 (53) Thornwood Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,422 (+12%)	4mo	$230,000	$95	56
27 Burnwood Pt	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,029 (-6%)	10mo	$270,000	$133	55
540 Northgate Road Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,232 (+3%)	15mo	$245,000	$110	48
55 Northwood Ter	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,028 (-6%)	10mo	$340,000	$168	44
11 Northwood Ter	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,253 (+4%)	13mo	$440,000	$195	43
3502 Chestnut Hill Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,892 (-12%)	6mo	$167,500	$89	41
3873 Applegate Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,913 (-11%)	22mo	$305,000	$159	38
77 Northwood Ter	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,951 (-10%)	9mo	$275,000	$141	33
97 Ridgeview Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (-14%)	9mo	$258,000	$139	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $136,379
• Equity at exit: $314,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $444,056
• Equity at exit: $678,030

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,155/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $199,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-647	-5% $-746	+0% $-844	+5% $-943	+10% $-1,042
Rent	-10% $-1,009	-5% $-926	+0% $-844	+5% $-762	+10% $-680
Rate	-1.0pp $-669	-0.5pp $-756	base $-844	+0.5pp $-935	+1.0pp $-1,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $349,000 Active
18. 2021-05-10
    soldstatus $250,000
19. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $250,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Tucked away on an oversized Hideout lot (. 62 acres) sits this 4 bedrooms, 3 bath contemporary saltbox home. Greenbelt in rear of property offers lots of privacy, maintenance free vinyl siding, paved driveway has plenty of parking, sunken living room, brick fireplace and spacious loft. Located in the amenity rich community The Hideout!, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Eating Area: Dining Area, Eating Area: Semi-Modern KT

20. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $250,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Tucked away on an oversized Hideout lot (. 62 acres) sits this 4 bedrooms, 3 bath contemporary saltbox home. Greenbelt in rear of property offers lots of privacy, maintenance free vinyl siding, paved driveway has plenty of parking, sunken living room, brick fireplace and spacious loft. Located in the amenity rich community The Hideout!, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Eating Area: Dining Area, Eating Area: Semi-Modern KT

21. 2021-03-11
    listed $225,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Tucked away on an oversized Hideout lot (. 62 acres) sits this 4 bedrooms, 3 bath contemporary saltbox home. Greenbelt in rear of property offers lots of privacy, maintenance free vinyl siding, paved driveway has plenty of parking, sunken living room, brick fireplace and spacious loft. Located in the amenity rich community The Hideout!, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Eating Area: Dining Area, Eating Area: Semi-Modern KT

22. 2021-03-11
    listed $225,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Tucked away on an oversized Hideout lot (. 62 acres) sits this 4 bedrooms, 3 bath contemporary saltbox home. Greenbelt in rear of property offers lots of privacy, maintenance free vinyl siding, paved driveway has plenty of parking, sunken living room, brick fireplace and spacious loft. Located in the amenity rich community The Hideout!, Beds Description: 2+BED 2nd, Beds Description: 1BedLL, Beds Description: 1Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level 1, Baths: 1 Bath Level 2, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Eating Area: Dining Area, Eating Area: Semi-Modern KT

23. 2016-07-22
    soldstatus $128,000
24. 2002-12-12
    soldstatus $102,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,155 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,335 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,180/yr (+$98/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$3,155
• − Insurance: −$2,412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$16,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,990
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+240.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $349,000 PWMLS
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $250,000 PWMLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $250,000 PWMLS
• 2021-03-11 Listed $225,000 PWMLS
• 2021-03-11 Listed $225,000 PWMLS
• 2016-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,155 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.