5537 Trinity Ave

Lowville, NY 13367

$159,500D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,514 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$836
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-143/mo
• Annual: $-1,719/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $44,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#490 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-, crime B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowville Academy & Central School District (town): math 51% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lowville Elementary School (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #974 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 618 students, 50% FRL); Lowville Middle School (math 34% / reading 57%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 297 students, 46% FRL); Lowville High School (math 98% / reading 30%, grade B-, #808 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 367 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $160k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Lowville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.