5918 Lodge Creek Dr

Houston, TX 77066

$265,000C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,787 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$51
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,312/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.