5918 Lodge Creek Dr · Houston, TX 77066

$265,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1969 9,988 sqft lot $95/sqft · 10% below area Est $295k · 10% under $51/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor. Home offers both a formal living room and an informal living area, providing flexible space for entertaining and everyday living. Exterior features include a detached garage, long driveway with ample parking, and a covered backyard patio perfect for outdoor relaxation. Backyard also includes a hot tub for added enjoyment.

Key facts

• Informal living area
• Primary suite
• Formal living room

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• INFORMAL LIVING AREA
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• COVERED BACKYARD PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,838
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -10.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5914 Pebble Springs Dr	0.06mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,559 (-8%)	5mo	$309,000	$121	74
5614 Spanish Oak Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,731 (-2%)	1mo	$335,000	$123	70
5915 Pinewilde Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,737 (-2%)	4mo	$325,000	$119	68
5323 Olympia Fields Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,806 (+1%)	0mo	$399,999	$143	68
5718 Pine Arbor Dr	0.38mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,956 (+6%)	0mo	$325,000	$110	63
13339 Balmore Cir	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,842 (+2%)	1mo	$349,900	$123	62
5718 Green Springs Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	3,072 (+10%)	1mo	$365,000	$119	62
5339 Dana Leigh Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,604 (-7%)	2mo	$374,900	$144	60
5430 Green Springs Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	3,003 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$82	55
5330 Boyce Springs Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,585 (-7%)	4mo	$267,900	$104	54
5618 Green Springs Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	3,079 (+10%)	3mo	$385,000	$125	53
5810 Olympia Fields Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,492 (-11%)	2mo	$339,999	$136	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-20,950
• Equity at exit: $63,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-17,712
• Equity at exit: $66,658

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77066

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$458 /mo · $5,496/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,543

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $184	+0% $109	+5% $34	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $3	+0% $109	+5% $215	+10% $321
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $177	base $109	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Pending 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Pending 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Pending 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $265,000 Pending 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-05-15
    price $265,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor. Home offers both a formal living room and an informal living area, providing flexible space for entertaining and everyday living. Exterior features include a detached garage, long driveway with ample parking, and a covered backyard patio perfect for outdoor relaxation. Backyard also includes a hot tub for added enjoyment.

12. 2026-04-22
    price $275,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor. Home offers both a formal living room and an informal living area, providing flexible space for entertaining and everyday living. Exterior features include a detached garage, long driveway with ample parking, and a covered backyard patio perfect for outdoor relaxation. Backyard also includes a hot tub for added enjoyment.

13. 2026-03-23
    price $286,900 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor. Home offers both a formal living room and an informal living area, providing flexible space for entertaining and everyday living. Exterior features include a detached garage, long driveway with ample parking, and a covered backyard patio perfect for outdoor relaxation. Backyard also includes a hot tub for added enjoyment.

14. 2026-03-04
    listed $295,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor. Home offers both a formal living room and an informal living area, providing flexible space for entertaining and everyday living. Exterior features include a detached garage, long driveway with ample parking, and a covered backyard patio perfect for outdoor relaxation. Backyard also includes a hot tub for added enjoyment.

15. 1988-06-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,496 · $458/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,496 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$5,496
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$709
• After-tax cash flow: $2,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,311
• Household income: $87,138
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 15% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 36% Vietnamese 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 261.1086
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $286,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 1988-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,496 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.