23 Black Bear Rd #308

Center Sandwich, NH 03215

$169,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Pending · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,695/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$469
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,574/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (25.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#47 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Waterville Valley School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #98 of 171 in NH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterville Valley Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #62 of 263 statewide, top 30%, 51 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?