23 Black Bear Rd #308 · Center Sandwich, NH 03215

$169,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 240 Days on market

Built 1986 $469/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Value-Priced Third Floor (One level above the lobby) makes this the ideal location for privacy and convenience. Standard one-bedroom design sleeps 6. New windows. East Facing views bring in plenty of morning light. Condo fees include cable TV, phone and internet service. On site rental program, Indoor/outdoor pool, Gameroom, sauna, exercise room, owner ski lockers. Shuttle bus stop outside the front door. This unit is currently in the Black Bear Lodge Rental program existing reservations must be honored or arrangements made with management company to move them. Please see attached list of existing reservations. Includes transferable membership in the White Mountain Athletic Club with $900 t

Key facts

• Indoor outdoor pool
• Gameroom
• East facing views

Tags

• IDEAL LOCATION FOR PRIVACY
• NEW WINDOWS
• EAST FACING VIEWS
• ON SITE RENTAL PROGRAM
• INDOOR OUTDOOR POOL
• GAMEROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association road frontage; Association documents available (association docs, deed, property disclosure, reserves)
• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (Black Bear Lodge); Quarterly condo fee of $1,269 covering cable, association fees, landscaping, plowing and master insurance; Additional quarterly fee of $138.52 covering water, sewer and trash; Association amenities include building maintenance, exercise facility, and master insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Shared parking (association)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers (NHEC); Cable Internet available
• Home design: Contemporary hotel-style condominium; Unit #308; Built in 1986
• Construction: Masonry, steel frame and wood frame construction; Clapboard and vertical siding, wood exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Condo development setting; Landscaped grounds; Common/shared paved driveway; 1 acre of common land

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator; Trash compactor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Wall AC units
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (25.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#47 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Waterville Valley School District (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #98 of 171 in NH (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterville Valley Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #62 of 263 statewide, top 30%, 51 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $125,903 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $33,414
• Equity at exit: $109,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $112,957
• Equity at exit: $202,058

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03215

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$469
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,072

Max offer price $125,903

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $469 · $5,628/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-23
   listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − HOA: −$5,628
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$6,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterville Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 3306910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,976
• Composite: 46.42/100
• National rank: #5344
• State rank: #98 of 171 in NH

Livability — Center Sandwich

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #7752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 269

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 20% Lithuanian 10% Scotch-Irish 9%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 541.9424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $169,000 PrimeMLS