4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,404 sqft ·
Built 1913
· Other
· Pending
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,131/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$171
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$237
Net cashflow
$-64/mo
Annual
$-769/yr
Cap rate
5.78%
Cash-on-cash
-1.83%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-769/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (7.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.6% below list).
Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $113k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#593 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Sherrard CUSD 200 (rural): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #240 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Matherville Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #332 of 665 statewide, top 55%, 190 students, 0% FRL); Sherrard High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 451 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 25% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mercer County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-P467H35DDV7A0D
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29