486 Lindsey Dr

Lakeland, FL 33809

$309,999D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,663/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-163/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-163/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (14.1% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $266k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Clem Churchwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 708 students, 53% FRL); Lake Gibson Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 1,218 students, 56% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 12305% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $209k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,663/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 924% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.