486 Lindsey Dr · Lakeland, FL 33809

$309,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2004 0.50 ac lot $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful move-in ready home will not last long. This is a corner double lot has a front entry carport. The property has an extra lot attached with a gazebo off the back porch. There are 2 outside storage room, and vinyl fenced back yard with sprinkler system. The home has a large living room, big island in kitchen. Off the kitchen is the laundry room with washer, dryer. The split plan concept features the master bedroom directly off of the living room with a large walk-in closet; the ensuite master bath has a large vanity, tub, and separate shower. The guest bedrooms are good size and share the guest bath. Roof is just over 2 years old, A/C 2013, electric good, water heater 2003. Buyer should verify all measurements.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Freshly painted
• New appliances

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW BATHROOM VANITIES
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW FIXTURES
• FRESHLY PAINTED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment; Total lot approximately 0.5 acres (103 x 113, asphalt road access)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $190; about $15.83/month) — association approval required; Association name: Norma Trassa

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; North-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Crawlspace foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-163/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Clem Churchwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 708 students, 53% FRL); Lake Gibson Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 1,218 students, 56% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,663/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 924% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 12305% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $209k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,255 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-57,223
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-74,920
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,166/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,680

Max offer price $307,606

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $74	+0% $-14	+5% $-101	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-119	+0% $-14	+5% $92	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $65	base $-14	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8328 Wilder Pines Ave Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2107	$2,650	$1.26	5d	1	0.41mi
8004 Settlers Creek Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,300	$1.09	25d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $2,499
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $309,999 Active
3. 2021-08-12
   soldstatus $209,000
4. 2021-08-09
   soldstatus $209,000 Closed 732-char remark

   Show marketing remark (732 chars)

   This beautiful move-in ready home will not last long. This is a corner double lot has a front entry carport. The property has an extra lot attached with a gazebo off the back porch. There are 2 outside storage room, and vinyl fenced back yard with sprinkler system. The home has a large living room, big island in kitchen. Off the kitchen is the laundry room with washer, dryer. The split plan concept features the master bedroom directly off of the living room with a large walk-in closet; the ensuite master bath has a large vanity, tub, and separate shower. The guest bedrooms are good size and share the guest bath. Roof is just over 2 years old, A/C 2013, electric good, water heater 2003. Buyer should verify all measurements.

5. 2021-06-29
   status Pending 732-char remark

   Show marketing remark (732 chars)

   This beautiful move-in ready home will not last long. This is a corner double lot has a front entry carport. The property has an extra lot attached with a gazebo off the back porch. There are 2 outside storage room, and vinyl fenced back yard with sprinkler system. The home has a large living room, big island in kitchen. Off the kitchen is the laundry room with washer, dryer. The split plan concept features the master bedroom directly off of the living room with a large walk-in closet; the ensuite master bath has a large vanity, tub, and separate shower. The guest bedrooms are good size and share the guest bath. Roof is just over 2 years old, A/C 2013, electric good, water heater 2003. Buyer should verify all measurements.

6. 2021-06-22
   listed $215,000 Active 732-char remark

   Show marketing remark (732 chars)

   This beautiful move-in ready home will not last long. This is a corner double lot has a front entry carport. The property has an extra lot attached with a gazebo off the back porch. There are 2 outside storage room, and vinyl fenced back yard with sprinkler system. The home has a large living room, big island in kitchen. Off the kitchen is the laundry room with washer, dryer. The split plan concept features the master bedroom directly off of the living room with a large walk-in closet; the ensuite master bath has a large vanity, tub, and separate shower. The guest bedrooms are good size and share the guest bath. Roof is just over 2 years old, A/C 2013, electric good, water heater 2003. Buyer should verify all measurements.

7. 2008-03-03
   listed $185,400
8. 2007-07-11
   historical
9. 2007-05-10
   listed $184,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,166 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,166 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,166
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$5,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $1,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $2,499 STELLARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $309,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $209,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-09 Sold (MLS) $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-22 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-03 Listed $185,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-10 Listed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,166 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.