313 N Padgett Dr

Morganfield, KY 42437

$122,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $980/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $9/mo
• Annual: $108/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $34,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#336 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morganfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 307 students, 71% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.