313 N Padgett Dr · Morganfield, KY 42437

$122,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

50 ac lot Est $151k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

A wonderful three bedroom home with a very large garage and basement located close to schools, shopping and medical care. This would be perfect for a first time buyer or retiree. Union County KY has some of the best farm land in the country, lots of fishing and hunting for the outsdoorsman also. * * * This home is not for rent * * *

Key facts

• 50 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Home design: Single family residence; 1 story
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#336 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morganfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 307 students, 71% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,971 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,088
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417&425 E Waverly St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	2mo	$158,500	$147	79
18 Senate Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,124 (+6%)	2mo	$125,000	$111	61
309 E Manning St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+8%)	10mo	$118,500	$103	60
405 N Townsend St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+2%)	9mo	$183,000	$168	59
17 Congress Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+3%)	6mo	$121,000	$110	56
443 N Townsend St	0.66mi	3/1.0	984 (-8%)	7mo	$140,000	$142	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-11,684
• Equity at exit: $26,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,686
• Equity at exit: $24,863

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42437

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $44	+0% $9	+5% $-26	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $-30	+0% $9	+5% $48	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $40	base $9	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $122,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $122,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $122,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    remarks 338-char remark
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 296-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,049 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable loss: −$2,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$482
• After-tax cash flow: $590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 2105640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,776
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8139
• State rank: #134 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morganfield

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #15964

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morganfield, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,250

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,038 people
• By 2030: 14,681 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 13,607 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 12,406 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 9,720 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 7,841 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.2% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.56%
• Current HPI: 222.4762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $125,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $892 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.