26434 County Road 131

Bedias, TX 77831

$95,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Pending · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,082/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,079/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,601 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madisonville El (700 students, 80% FRL); Madisonville J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 71% FRL); Madisonville H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 695 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Bedias — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.