26434 County Road 131 · Bedias, TX 77831

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2012 2.98 ac lot Est $180k · 47% under ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

This unrestricted 2.9-acre property offers a unique opportunity for investors, homesteaders, or anyone looking for a fixer-upper with serious potential. The land is partially cleared and features a peaceful pond, a community well, and an RV hook-up, making it ideal for a variety of uses. The main home is a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom structure in need of TLC, but with the right vision, it could be transformed into a charming residence. Also included is a mobile home, which also requires renovation but could serve as a rental, guest space, or additional income source. With no restrictions, plenty of space, and endless possibilities, this property is a blank canvas ready for your personal touch.

Key facts

• 2.9 acre property
• Peaceful pond
• Community well

Tags

• 2.9 ACRE PROPERTY
• PARTIALLY CLEARED LAND
• PEACEFUL POND
• COMMUNITY WELL
• RV HOOK-UP
• FIXER-UPPER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Bedias — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,601 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Madisonville CISD (town): math 53% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Madisonville El (700 students, 80% FRL); Madisonville J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 71% FRL); Madisonville H S (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 695 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26434 County Road 131	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$79	99
26353 Bedias Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$179,900	$150	86
25975 Cemetery Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$183,329	$153	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-4,330
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $10,564
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77831

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,729/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $200	+0% $173	+5% $146	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $130	+0% $173	+5% $216	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $197	base $173	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   price $95,000
3. 2025-09-04
   listed $100,000 Active
4. 2025-02-15
   price $125,000
5. 2025-01-14
   price $130,000
6. 2024-11-25
   price $145,000
7. 2024-09-25
   listed $155,000 Active
8. 2024-08-05
   historical
9. 2024-06-05
   price $165,000
10. 2024-06-05
    price $165,000
11. 2024-04-20
    price $175,000
12. 2024-04-19
    price $175,000
13. 2024-03-01
    listed $185,000 Active
14. 2024-02-21
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,729 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,729
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$149
• After-tax cash flow: $1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madisonville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,234
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #3102
• State rank: #177 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bedias

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1601
• US rank: #27239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,163

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 240.0197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-48.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $125,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $130,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $145,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $155,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-08-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $165,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-04-20 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $175,000 BCSRMLS
• 2024-03-01 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-21 Listed $185,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,729 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.