4314 Mercedes Dr

Midland, TX 79703

$195,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $246/mo
• Annual: $2,952/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long El (math 36% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 80% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.