4314 Mercedes Dr · Midland, TX 79703

$195,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1955 8,407 sqft lot $162/sqft · 24% above area Est $157k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment house. The outside has been painted and the roof is 1 1/2 years old There is a storage building in back yard. The inside walls have been repaired and just need painting. This is a great starter home with 3bed, and 2 baths. Really a great investment. Call A Realtor for your showing today. Nice sized back yard . Sols AS IS Where Is

Key facts

• Storage building
• Nice sized back yard
• Painted outside

Tags

• STORAGE BUILDING
• PAINTED OUTSIDE
• REPAIRED INSIDE WALLS
• NICE SIZED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Long El (math 36% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 667 students, 80% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,099
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 24.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4626 Wilshire Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-3%)	8mo	$160,000	$137	64
900 Canyon Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-4%)	13mo	$146,469	$127	55
4210 Pleasant Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,259 (+5%)	15mo	$160,000	$127	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,557
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,351
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79703

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,939/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $301	+0% $246	+5% $191	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $170	+0% $246	+5% $322	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $296	base $246	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	46d	1	0.24mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	45d	1	0.36mi
4000 W Illinois Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,545	$2.05	23d	10	0.49mi
123 N Glenwood Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	45d	1	0.54mi
117 N Glenwood Dr Unit D Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	23d	1	0.55mi
4707 Shadylane Dr Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	15d	1	0.57mi
4701 W Illinois Ave Unit D Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	23d	1	0.59mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	15d	8	0.60mi
4506 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	15d	1	0.62mi
4610 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,899	$1.60	23d	1	0.64mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	45d	1	0.65mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	23d	1	0.67mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.67mi
4503 Crockett Ave Unit B Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	45d	1	0.69mi
4519 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1465	$1,900	$1.30	23d	1	0.70mi
4525 Crockett Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$4,250	$3.04	23d	1	0.71mi
3712 Amelia Dr Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1046	$2,000	$1.91	23d	1	0.74mi
3506 Apache Dr Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,800	$1.79	23d	1	0.81mi
3403 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$2,000	$1.36	15d	1	0.84mi
5109 Graceland Dr Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,250	$1.65	45d	1	0.91mi
4719 Bowie Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	991	$4,500	$4.54	23d	1	0.94mi
5202 Ric Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1258	$1,975	$1.57	23d	1	1.13mi
516 North Loop 250 W Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,724	$2.28	15d	28	1.14mi
3311 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	15d	1	1.17mi
4600 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,590	$2.32	45d	5	1.25mi
3100 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	45d	1	1.29mi
2812 Mariana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	1.35mi
3601 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,615	$2.02	15d	16	1.36mi
3007 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,079	$1.17	23d	1	1.46mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	45d	1	1.49mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	15d	1	1.49mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 101 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    listed $195,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Great investment house. The outside has been painted and the roof is 1 1/2 years old There is a storage building in back yard. The inside walls have been repaired and just need painting. This is a great starter home with 3bed, and 2 baths. Really a great investment. Call A Realtor for your showing today. Nice sized back yard . Sols AS IS Where Is

19. 2026-02-12
    soldstatus
20. 2026-02-12
    soldstatus
21. 2006-03-13
    soldstatus
22. 2003-12-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,630/yr (+$136/mo · 84.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,939
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$54
• After-tax cash flow: $3,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,419
• Household income: $77,285
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 417.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 34% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.72%
• Current HPI: 224.6222
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $195,000 ODMLS
• 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.