18711 Weeping Willow Ln

Pearland, TX 77584

$55,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2019 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $1,153/mo
• Annual: $13,842/yr
• Cap rate: 31.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.88%
• DSCR: 5.00
• 1% rule: 3.65%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 500 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 31.5% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: cabinetry — Cabinetry appears slightly worn but not damaged.
• Minor: appliances — Appliances appear slightly dated but functional.
• Minor: paint — Interior walls may benefit from fresh paint to improve appearance.
• Unknown: HVAC — No photo of HVAC system provided.
• Unknown: roof — No photo of roof provided.
• Unknown: exterior — No photo of exterior provided.