18711 Weeping Willow Ln · Pearland, TX 77584

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful mobile home for sale! Price not negotiable. Home is still being financed and that is what is owed to fully pay loan . I & acirc; & euro; & trade; m relocating, need to get off my hands. Once paid new owner can stay at the mobile lot or move it.

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.6% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $54,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.36%
• DSCR: 5.02
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $61,956
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $137,160
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77584

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,430/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $55,000 Under Contract 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $55,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 254-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $55,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,430 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,430 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,430
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $13,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,337
• After-tax cash flow: $10,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home requires cosmetic updates to the kitchen, interior walls, and landscaping to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor cabinetry — Cabinetry appears slightly worn but not damaged.
• Minor appliances — Appliances appear slightly dated but functional.
• Minor paint — Interior walls may benefit from fresh paint to improve appearance.
• Unknown HVAC — No photo of HVAC system provided.
• Unknown roof — No photo of roof provided.
• Unknown exterior — No photo of exterior provided.
• Unknown windows — No photo of windows provided.
• Unknown foundation/structure — No photo of foundation/structure provided.
• Unknown landscaping — No photo of landscaping provided.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Replace cabinetry and appliances — Updating the kitchen can significantly enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's value.
• Both Roof inspection — A healthy roof is crucial for the home's longevity and value.
• Both Exterior siding inspection — Aesthetic improvements to the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both Windows inspection and replacement — New windows can improve energy efficiency and the home's curb appeal.
• Both Foundation inspection — A stable foundation is essential for the home's structural integrity and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
cabinetry · Cabinetry appears slightly worn but not damaged.	Minor	$500–3,000
appliances · Appliances appear slightly dated but functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
paint · Interior walls may benefit from fresh paint to improve appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC · No photo of HVAC system provided.	Unknown	$500–3,000
roof · No photo of roof provided.	Unknown	$500–3,000
exterior · No photo of exterior provided.	Unknown	$500–3,000
windows · No photo of windows provided.	Unknown	$500–3,000
foundation/structure · No photo of foundation/structure provided.	Unknown	$500–3,000
landscaping · No photo of landscaping provided.	Unknown	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$4,500–27,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace cabinetry and appliances — Updating the kitchen can significantly enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve the home's value. ↑
• Both Roof inspection — A healthy roof is crucial for the home's longevity and value. ↑
• Both Exterior siding inspection — Aesthetic improvements to the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Windows inspection and replacement — New windows can improve energy efficiency and the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Both Foundation inspection — A stable foundation is essential for the home's structural integrity and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 91,065
• Household income: $121,872
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 21% Black 21% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 14% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.09%
• Current HPI: 213.4011
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $55,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,430 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.