4615 Victor Path #6

Hugo, MN 55038

$239,900D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2010 · Condo · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-258/mo
• Annual: $-3,092/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (5.9% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $240k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?