4615 Victor Path #6 · Hugo, MN 55038

$239,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2010 $154/sqft · 28% below area Est $364k · 34% under $450/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a nice ready move in condo with 2 bed, 3bath, an office and a loft with 2 car garage tuck under and nice deck.

Key facts

• $450 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Hugo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#314 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoska International (math 45% / reading 54%, grade D, #423 of 857 statewide, top 55%, 554 students, 24% FRL); Central Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,020 students, 24% FRL); White Bear South Campus Senior (math 37%, 1,111 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $240k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $194,376 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,300
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -34.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-55,017
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-67,946
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55038

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,806/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,585

Max offer price $194,376

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-190	+0% $-258	+5% $-326	+10% $-394
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-347	+0% $-258	+5% $-168	+10% $-79
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-197	base $-258	+0.5pp $-320	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4631 Rosemary Way Hugo, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,330	$2.42	0d	1	0.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $259,900 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    This is a nice ready move in condo with 2 bed, 3bath, an office and a loft with 2 car garage tuck under and nice deck.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $269,900 Active 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    This is a nice ready move in condo with 2 bed, 3bath, an office and a loft with 2 car garage tuck under and nice deck.

18. 2024-05-14
    historical
19. 2024-02-29
    price $274,900
20. 2024-02-29
    listed $269,900 Active
21. 2016-11-01
    historical
22. 2016-10-02
    price $169,900
23. 2016-09-15
    listed $174,900 Active
24. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus $149,000 Sold
25. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus $149,000
26. 2015-07-07
    status Pending
27. 2015-06-12
    price $149,900
28. 2015-06-04
    listed $157,900 Active
29. 2010-08-03
    soldstatus $139,900
30. 2010-06-12
    historical
31. 2010-04-14
    listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,806
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$7,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hugo

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #7032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hugo, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,061
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,061
• Household income: $130,931
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 222.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.33%
• Current HPI: 223.6524
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $274,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-29 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-02 Price Changed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-15 Listed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-04 Sold (MLS) $149,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-07 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-12 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-04 Listed $157,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-03 Sold (MLS) $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-14 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,806 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.