29197 Surf Ave

Lincoln, MO 65338

$235,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1958 · Other · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-551/mo
• Annual: $-6,609/yr
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.03%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-551 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (50.5% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#168 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cole Camp R-I (rural): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #61 of 324 in MO (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?