1411 4th St

Calistoga, CA 94515

$985,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,165
• Tax + insurance: −$766
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,246
• Net cashflow: $-1,246/mo
• Annual: $-14,946/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $275,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $985k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $765k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $593k (39.8% below list).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($867k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $593k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $985k implies a 392% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.