1411 4th St · Calistoga, CA 94515

$985,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 302 Days on market

Built 1959 6,098 sqft lot $431/sqft · 14% below area Est $1151k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in Calistoga or live in one unit and enjoy income from the other unit. The first level is mainly a carport and storage rooms. The second level is a 1692+/- sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 2 bath unit and the third level is a 594+/- sq. ft. 1 bedroom 1 bath penthouse with a deck off the living room. New roof in August 2025. 2nd level unit was painted, kitchen updated and new flooring in October 2024.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Carport
• Storage rooms

Tags

• CARPORT
• STORAGE ROOMS
• LARGE DECK
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $985k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $765k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $593k (39.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $593k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($867k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $985k implies a 392% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $593,100 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,150,923
• List price: $985,000
• Delta: -14.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1705 Michael Way	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,310 (+1%)	4mo	$1,390,000	$602	69
1819 Cedar St	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,234 (-2%)	9mo	$1,250,000	$560	67
1759 Emerald Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (-2%)	0mo	$955,000	$425	66
1705 Adele St	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,183 (-4%)	5mo	$1,140,000	$522	60
1703 Michael Way	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,380 (+4%)	16mo	$1,150,000	$483	49
1574 Centennial Cir	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,210 (-3%)	23mo	$1,150,000	$520	42
1714 Emerald Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,090 (-9%)	22mo	$1,425,000	$682	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-239,389
• Equity at exit: $146,867

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-312,427
• Equity at exit: $85,165

Cash invested: $275,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,165
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,262/yr
• Insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,246
• Net cashflow: $-1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,508

Max offer price $764,973

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-688	-5% $-967	+0% $-1,246	+5% $-1,524	+10% $-1,803
Rent	-10% $-1,714	-5% $-1,480	+0% $-1,246	+5% $-1,011	+10% $-777
Rate	-1.0pp $-749	-0.5pp $-995	base $-1,246	+0.5pp $-1,501	+1.0pp $-1,760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $246,250
• Closing costs: $29,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Grant St Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,795	$2.34	44d	1	0.29mi
1823 Foothill Blvd Calistoga, CA	4.0	3.5	2889	$9,900	$3.43	3d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $985,000 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $985,000 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $985,000 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $985,000 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $985,000 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $985,000 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $985,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $985,000 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $985,000 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 506-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $985,000 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,095,000 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,095,000 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,095,000 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,095,000 Active 285 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,095,000 Active 284 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,095,000 Active 283 DOM
18. 2025-08-20
    listed $1,095,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Calistoga or live in one unit and enjoy income from the other unit. The first level is mainly a carport and storage rooms. The second level is a 1692+/- sq. ft. 4 bedroom, 2 bath unit and the third level is a 594+/- sq. ft. 1 bedroom 1 bath penthouse with a deck off the living room. New roof in August 2025. 2nd level unit was painted, kitchen updated and new flooring in October 2024.

19. 2025-01-17
    historical $2,750
20. 2024-11-15
    price $2,750
21. 2024-10-08
    listed $2,995
22. 2022-02-03
    price $1,700
23. 1987-08-20
    soldstatus $200,000
24. 1984-11-07
    soldstatus $131,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,262 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,486 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,224/yr (+$269/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,175
• − Property taxes: −$4,262
• − Insurance: −$4,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,694
• − Management: −$5,694
• − Depreciation: −$28,655
• Taxable loss: −$33,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+735.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-20 Listed $1,095,000 BAREIS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $2,750 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $2,750 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-08 Listed for Rent $2,995 APPFOLIO
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,700 RENT.
• 1987-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,262 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.