254 N Pine St

Decatur, IL 62522

$109,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1919 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$380
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-576/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $101k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.