254 N Pine St · Decatur, IL 62522

$109,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1919 9,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous hardwood floors greet you at the expansive foyer entry and flow thoughout this stylish turn of the century well built 4 bedroom masterpiece. Once known as the Flora home, special features include French doors leading to 2 Juliet balconies and more French doors leading to the 4 season sunroom and from the dining room to the covered portico and drive. Current owner updates include a new heating system and newer roof. Adding to the value of this property are other more expensive homes W. along William St. and in nearby Millikin Place. This propery will invite you to linger and make this home for many years to come.

Key facts

• 9,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1919

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,418 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,512
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1075 W Prairie Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,209 (+5%)	0mo	$70,000	$58	65
660 S Haworth Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-2%)	3mo	$50,000	$44	56
982 W Marietta St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-2%)	16mo	$30,000	$27	44
980 N University Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (-1%)	21mo	$42,000	$37	37
853 Forest Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+9%)	20mo	$45,000	$36	36
963 N University Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-6%)	11mo	$40,000	$37	36
996 W Packard St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (+10%)	9mo	$69,900	$55	35
1056 W King St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (-10%)	14mo	$50,000	$49	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-20,729
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-21,427
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62522

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,006/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $101,418

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1045 N Monroe St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,000	$0.91	43d	1	0.62mi
520 S Church St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,199	$0.96	13d	1	0.65mi
1245 N Union St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1111	$995	$0.90	43d	1	0.85mi
1345 N Fairview Ave Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	785	$985	$1.25	43d	1	1.05mi
644 W Division St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,200	$0.88	43d	1	1.10mi
759 E Lawrence St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	1080	$695	$0.64	43d	1	1.17mi
803 E Whitmer St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$935	$1.04	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2023-09-03
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-12
   historical
3. 2021-06-17
   soldstatus $111,667
4. 2021-05-10
   historical
5. 2021-05-10
   historical
6. 2021-05-10
   historical
7. 2020-12-04
   listed $109,900
8. 2020-12-04
   listed
9. 2020-10-28
   historical
10. 2002-03-31
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,006 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,006 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$4,006
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$2,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $-18/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,185
• Household income: $50,669
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.64%
• Current HPI: 180.7847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2023-09-03 Pending — CIBR
• 2023-08-12 Delisted — CIBR
• 2021-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $111,667 Public Records
• 2021-05-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Delisted — CIBR
• 2020-12-04 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-04 Listed $109,900 CIBR
• 2020-10-28 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-31 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,006 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.