34 Appletree Dr

Red Hook, NY 12572

$459,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$862
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-600/mo
• Annual: $-7,196/yr
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (26.4% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $338k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in NY, #113 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Primary Grades (309 students, 23% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.