34 Appletree Dr · Red Hook, NY 12572

$459,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1984 0.35 ac lot $340/sqft · 8% above area Est $534k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming Cape Cod–style home offers the perfect blend of comfort, flexibility, and location. Featuring four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, the property has been meticulously maintained and is truly move-in ready. A standout feature is the legal accessory apartment, ideal for generating rental income or accommodating extended guests. This private space includes one bedroom, a large walk-in closet, one full bathroom, and a fully equipped kitchen. The main residence offers three additional bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing ample room for everyday living. The updated kitchen, new carpeting, and inviting gathering room create a warm and welcoming interior. Lower level has

Key facts

• Mature landscaping
• Media room
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• LEGAL ACCESSORY APARTMENT
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• MEDIA ROOM
• DECK OVERLOOKING YARD
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• ROOF INSTALLED IN 2009

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with garage door opener; Off-street parking; Total of 4 parking spaces; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric service; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Private trash collection; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Actual condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Exterior lighting; Mailbox; Rain gutters; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Concrete; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Entrance foyer; Pantry; Storage; Storm door(s); Bay window(s); Blinds and drapes; Window screens; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Electric water heater; Oil water heater; Dehumidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-600 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Red Hook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in NY, #113 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Primary Grades (309 students, 23% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $337,840 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,434
• List price: $459,000
• Delta: -14.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Birchwood Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,368 (+1%)	11mo	$465,000	$340	70
26 Birchwood Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,482 (+10%)	3mo	$482,000	$325	65
9 Shady Ln	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,482 (+10%)	6mo	$485,000	$327	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-112,460
• Equity at exit: $68,438

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-146,660
• Equity at exit: $39,686

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12572

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$670 /mo · $8,044/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,137

Max offer price $353,066

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Smith St Red Hook, NY	3.0	1.5	1148	$2,700	$2.35	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1377-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $459,000 Active 1377-char remark
3. 1991-06-28
   soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,044 · $670/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,044 · $670/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$8,044
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,243
• − Management: −$3,243
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$15,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,684
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Hook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624240
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,040
• Composite: 50.84/100
• National rank: #1801
• State rank: #245 of 590 in NY

Livability — Red Hook

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #113

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 10,108
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 8,869
• Household income: $94,859
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.91%
• Current HPI: 321.5995
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+294.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $505,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,044 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.