111 Hidden Valley Dr

Briar Chapel, NC 27516

$265,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-121/mo
• Annual: $-1,448/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chatham County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #68 of 178 in NC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chatham Grove Elementary (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B+, #120 of 1,410 statewide, top 9%, 677 students, 18% FRL); Margaret B. Pollard Middle (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B+, #43 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 768 students, 20% FRL); Seaforth High (732 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 45% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chatham County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 458 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chatham County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.9% in Briar Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.