111 Hidden Valley Dr · Briar Chapel, NC 27516

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Townhouse public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1983 0.69 ac lot Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

Key facts

• Wooded backyard
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Sprawling deck

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• CANOPY OF MATURE HARDWOODS
• GOLDFISH POND
• SPRAWLING DECK
• WOODED BACKYARD
• HAND PAINTED MURAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (4 spaces); Total parking for 6 vehicles; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank (septic connected); Electricity connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; End unit with one common wall
• Construction: Cedar construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Site-built; Built as a townhouse
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Partially wooded / wooded vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Ceiling fan(s); Living/dining room combination; Skylight(s); Wood-burning fireplace in the living room (1)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.9% in Briar Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chatham County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #68 of 178 in NC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chatham Grove Elementary (math 66% / reading 68%, grade B+, #120 of 1,410 statewide, top 9%, 677 students, 18% FRL); Margaret B. Pollard Middle (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B+, #43 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 768 students, 20% FRL); Seaforth High (732 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 45% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chatham County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 458 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chatham County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,986 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,420
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Hidden Valley Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,211 (+2%)	1mo	$260,000	$215	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-51,598
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-58,780
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27516

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,026/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,113

Max offer price $243,689

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-46	+0% $-121	+5% $-196	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-198	+0% $-121	+5% $-43	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-53	base $-121	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Hidden Valley Dr Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	2.0	1211	$1,950	$1.61	4d	1	0.08mi
135 Ballentrae Ct Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,975	$2.06	3d	25	1.21mi
20 Allendale Dr Unit 127A Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	25d	1	1.34mi
20 Allendale Dr Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	18d	1	1.34mi
127 Allendale Dr Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $265,000 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $275,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $285,000
17. 2026-04-09
    status Active
18. 2026-02-25
    historical
19. 2026-02-13
    listed $295,000 Active
20. 2025-09-22
    historical
21. 2025-08-30
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-21
    price $289,000
23. 2025-07-15
    price $299,000
24. 2025-07-03
    listed $309,000 Active
25. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $255,000 Closed 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

26. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $255,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

27. 2023-10-27
    soldstatus $255,000

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

28. 2023-09-27
    historical Contingent 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

29. 2023-09-06
    price $269,500 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

30. 2023-09-06
    listed $265,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

31. 2023-09-06
    listed $269,500 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    A Treasure just minutes from Town!! This nicely tucked away secluded 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom two story wood ext townhome is perfectly located to enjoy all that nature has to offer plus all the lifestyle conveniences! Located on a quiet cul de sac street within the Hidden Valley Community, one of its SWEETEST gifts is that it comes to you with approximately . 69 acre homesite! Plenty of walking trails and a community park are in the n'hood too! Note that the Den/ Office on main floor has closet / window so could 'function' as. 3rd bed on main except the unit has a 2 Bed Soil Eval. noted on file. City water / Septic. No HOA dues. Owner maintains ext/ yard. Enjoy all the fun space for family & pets to gather, grow and still have space to garden! 15 min from downtown CH/Carr and Pittsboro!

32. 2005-12-08
    soldstatus $121,000
33. 2005-12-08
    soldstatus $121,000
34. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $121,000
35. 2005-09-07
    historical
36. 2005-08-23
    listed $121,000
37. 2005-08-23
    listed $121,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,026
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,476
• After-tax cash flow: $28/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,371
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3390
• State rank: #68 of 178 in NC

Livability — Briar Chapel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,358
• Household income: $106,353
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1783.0

Population outlook (Chatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,640 people
• By 2030: 90,521 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 99,791 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 106,565 · +25.9%
• By 2075: 119,165 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 122,958 · +45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chatham

• 2024 margin: D (+12.5) · D 55.7% · R 43.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.5 2020: D+11.5 2016: D+10.1 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.82%
• Current HPI: 222.7543
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+135.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $285,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $295,000 TMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-08-30 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $289,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $299,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $309,000 TMLS
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $255,000 AMLSNC
• 2023-10-27 Sold (MLS) $255,000 TMLS
• 2023-09-27 Contingent — TMLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $269,500 TMLS
• 2023-09-06 Listed $269,500 AMLSNC
• 2023-09-06 Listed $265,000 TMLS
• 2005-12-08 Sold (MLS) $121,000 AMLSNC
• 2005-12-08 Sold (MLS) $121,000 TMLS
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-07 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2005-08-23 Listed $121,000 AMLSNC
• 2005-08-23 Listed $121,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,026 · +22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.