33838 River Dr

Creswell, OR 97426

$50,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $793/mo
• Annual: $9,517/yr
• Cap rate: 25.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.98%
• DSCR: 4.02
• 1% rule: 2.88%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#80 in OR, #3,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Creswell SD 40 (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 183 in OR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $50k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 2.7% in Creswell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.