33838 River Dr · Creswell, OR 97426

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 1989 Est $50k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One owner.1977 Manufactured home in Family Park. Absolutely immaculate! Front covered deck 10'x30'-Huge 12'x30' carport with full awning! Lifetime blanket roof! Space rent $240.00 includes water/trash. Buyers must qualify with park management. MH Only-No property.

Key facts

• Shop
• Hot tub
• Pond

Tags

• ENCLOSED FENCED YARD
• HOT TUB
• POND
• OUTSIDE SHEDS
• SHOP
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 2.7% in Creswell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#80 in OR, #3,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Creswell SD 40 (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #78 of 183 in OR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $50k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.98%
• DSCR: 4.02
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,764
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33838 E River Dr #89	0.14mi	2/2.0	924 (+8%)	11mo	$50,000	$54	72
33838 E River Dr #23	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+11%)	12mo	$54,700	$58	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $42,431
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.29×
• Total profit: $102,079
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97426

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 128-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $50,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,225
• After-tax cash flow: $7,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Creswell SD 40
• NCES district ID: 4103690
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,499
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #7748
• State rank: #78 of 183 in OR

Livability — Creswell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,384

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.51%
• Current HPI: 311.4445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+170.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $50,000 FSBO.com
• 2004-06-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 RMLS
• 2004-06-16 Delisted — RMLS
• 2004-04-28 Listed $33,000 RMLS
• 2000-01-10 Sold (MLS) $18,000 RMLS
• 1999-12-02 Listed $18,500 RMLS