5627 Blue Shadows Ct #3

Orlando, FL 32811

$149,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 948 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,764/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$399
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-419/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tangelo Park Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 457 students, 83% FRL); Southwest Middle (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,385 students, 40% FRL); Dr. Phillips High (math 21% / reading 49%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 3,202 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 344 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.