22 Hunns Lake Rd

Millbrook, NY 12581

$525,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 1772 · SingleFamily · Active · 663 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$770
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-1,095/mo
• Annual: $-13,143/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (41.5% below list).
• It's been on market 663 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1772 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $290k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $525k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.1% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 663 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1772 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.