22 Hunns Lake Rd · Millbrook, NY 12581

$525,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 663 Days on market

Built 1772 2.01 ac lot $228/sqft · 10% below area Est $583k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• Country farm house
• Picturesque views
• Close to wineries

Tags

• COUNTRY FARM HOUSE
• BONUS ROOM FOR OFFICE/STUDIO
• PICTURESQUE VIEWS
• CLOSE TO WINERIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.1% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 663 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $290k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $525k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1772 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,315 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 663 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1772 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $583,000
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -9.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Hunns Lake Rd	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,197 (-5%)	23mo	$687,500	$313	62
6056 Route 82	0.41mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,294 (-0%)	22mo	$415,000	$181	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $216,154
• Equity at exit: $472,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $691,357
• Equity at exit: $1,019,960

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12581

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,614/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-1,095

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,460

Max offer price $331,520

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

2. 2026-02-20
   status Pending 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

3. 2025-10-30
   price $525,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

4. 2025-06-04
   price $610,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

5. 2024-10-03
   price $650,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

6. 2024-08-21
   price $695,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

7. 2024-05-25
   listed $815,000 Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Charming country farm house, circa 1772, in the heart of Stanfordville Ny. Spacious 5 bedroom, 2 bath with bonus room for your office/studio. Picturesque views. Close to Wineries, dining, antiques and Polo. Close to Taconic State Parkway and trains. Additional Information: Amenities:Pedestal Sink,Stall Shower,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

8. 2001-05-08
   soldstatus $239,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,614 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,743 · $645/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,129/yr (+$94/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$6,614
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,950
• − Management: −$2,950
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$22,942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,506
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Plains Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623040
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,189
• Composite: 48.33/100
• National rank: #4688
• State rank: #372 of 755 in NY

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,928

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.70%
• Current HPI: 270.6533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+119.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $610,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Listed $815,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $239,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,614 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.