30 Hemlock Dr

Clifton Knolls-Mill Creek, NY 12065

$299,900C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,310 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$761
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-726/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-726/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (4.1% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $288k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Skano Elementary School (math 77% / reading 79%, grade A, #239 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 543 students, 14% FRL); Koda Middle School (math 51% / reading 64%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 751 students, 21% FRL); Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.6% in Clifton Knolls-Mill Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.