30 Hemlock Dr · Clifton Knolls-Mill Creek, NY 12065

$299,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1962 0.45 ac lot Est $460k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors! Come see this Stans Colonial located in the heart of Clifton Park! With some TLC, this home can shine once again. Home boasts 5 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms with 2 fireplaces and a beautiful . 45 acre lot! Appliances are newer. Home is priced to sell in ''as-is'' condition. It will not last long. Come and see your future today!

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.45 acre

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking for additional vehicles (6 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single family residence; Property condition described as fixer; Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Rear porch and front porch; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor; Four bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Full and half baths located on the first and second floors
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Nine total rooms; Full, heated basement with interior entry and walk-out access; Two wood-burning fireplaces located in the family room and living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-726/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.6% in Clifton Knolls-Mill Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Skano Elementary School (math 77% / reading 79%, grade A, #239 of 2,108 statewide, top 11%, 543 students, 14% FRL); Koda Middle School (math 51% / reading 64%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 751 students, 21% FRL); Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $287,705 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $459,690
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Secada Dr	0.24mi	5/2.5	2,310 (0%)	10mo	$475,000	$206	78
2 Madrid Ct	0.25mi	5/3.0	2,475 (+7%)	0mo	$585,000	$236	72
20 Juniper Dr	0.43mi	5/2.5	2,310 (0%)	9mo	$459,900	$199	71
18 Par Del Rio	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,621 (+14%)	4mo	$595,000	$227	60
17 Belmonte Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,238 (-3%)	5mo	$360,000	$161	60
2 Hemlock Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,564 (+11%)	10mo	$440,500	$172	53
32 Secada Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,070 (-10%)	10mo	$377,500	$182	50
59 Valencia Ln	0.65mi	5/2.5	2,521 (+9%)	6mo	$470,000	$186	47
5 Silver Maple Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,175 (-6%)	16mo	$440,000	$202	47
34 Valencia Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (-10%)	2mo	$354,000	$171	47
19 Barney Rd	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,036 (-12%)	11mo	$450,000	$221	43
24 Valdepenas Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,478 (+7%)	11mo	$482,000	$195	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,393
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-24,801
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12065

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,629/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,954

Max offer price $289,208

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $24	+0% $-61	+5% $-145	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-174	+0% $-61	+5% $53	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $16	base $-61	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Center Rd Clifton Park, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,495	$1.39	25d	1	0.55mi
25 Brittany Oaks Clifton Park, NY	4.0	3.5	2188	$3,800	$1.74	45d	1	1.18mi
11 Abbey Ct Clifton Park, NY	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,950	$1.35	23d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $299,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   remarks 351-char remark
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,629 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,629 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$7,629
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenendehowa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626670
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $82,933
• Composite: 64.59/100
• National rank: #531
• State rank: #98 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clifton Knolls-Mill Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clifton Knolls-Mill Creek, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 45,116
• Household income: $113,873
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.12%
• Current HPI: 318.0765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $299,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,629 · +251.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.