902 N Jefferson St

Ava, MO 65608

$156,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-157/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $43,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $156k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-157/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.