902 N Jefferson St · Ava, MO 65608

$156,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Other public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1900 7,405 sqft lot $128/sqft · 40% above area Est $161k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Home was previously a business & could be again-Could also be a B & B or many other possibilities! Located close to Restaurants, Shopping & School-also close to the Missouri Foxtrotter's Association, Glade Top Trail, Rock Bridge Trout Farm, Laura Ingalls Wilder Home & Bull Shoals Lake. The Home has had many updates as well as the addition of a Bedroom & Utility/Mud Room. The Original Hardwood floors run throughout the Home. The property also has an upstairs that could be updated to include 2 bedrooms & additional bathroom(toilet already in place). Check this one out-Great Possibilities!

Key facts

• Close to school
• Close to restaurants
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO GLADE TOP TRAIL
• CLOSE TO BULL SHOALS LAKE
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-157/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,579 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,461
• List price: $156,000
• Delta: -3.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $74,010
• Equity at exit: $129,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $216,356
• Equity at exit: $269,409

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $153,690

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $31	+0% $-13	+5% $-57	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-58	+0% $-13	+5% $32	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $27	base $-13	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205D Knaack CT Unit 1 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.43mi
1322 Springfield Rd Unit 7 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,250	$1.11	44d	1	0.71mi
1315 Airport Rd Unit 9 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,250	$1.00	44d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $156,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $156,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $156,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $160,000 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    This Home was previously a business & could be again-Could also be a B & B or many other possibilities! Located close to Restaurants, Shopping & School-also close to the Missouri Foxtrotter's Association, Glade Top Trail, Rock Bridge Trout Farm, Laura Ingalls Wilder Home & Bull Shoals Lake. The Home has had many updates as well as the addition of a Bedroom & Utility/Mud Room. The Original Hardwood floors run throughout the Home. The property also has an upstairs that could be updated to include 2 bedrooms & additional bathroom(toilet already in place). Check this one out-Great Possibilities!

16. 2024-08-20
    price $149,000
17. 2024-07-12
    listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,513 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 258.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$2,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$703
• After-tax cash flow: $546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ava, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $160,000 SOMO
• 2024-08-20 Price Changed $149,000 SOMO
• 2024-07-12 Listed $159,000 SOMO

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $422 · -46.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.