7621 Amelia Springs Rd

Amelia Court House, VA 23083

$165,000C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,814 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $155/mo
• Annual: $1,855/yr
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $165k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.