7621 Amelia Springs Rd · Amelia Court House, VA 23083

$165,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1977 0.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * * * INVESTORS/CONTRACTORS SPECIAL * * * * * This is your opportunity to own almost 1acre of land and home in Amelia County! So much potential. Just 40 minutes from the bustling and vibrant Westchester Commons area of Chesterfield. Bring your contractor out and see the value for yourself! Perfect for a fix and sell or to add to your rental portfolio. House is being Sold As-is, Where is. Seller will not make any repairs. Bring your best offer. Seller is motivated!

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Unpaved parking areas
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Built as actual year (year built details available)
• Exterior features: Deck; Unpaved driveway

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One full bathroom includes tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating with electric and natural gas
• Interior features: Vinyl and wood flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $165k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,984 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $498,078
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7811 Dash Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,915 (+4%)	1mo	$515,000	$177	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $30,669
• Equity at exit: $75,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $94,107
• Equity at exit: $116,808

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23083

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,061/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $201	+0% $155	+5% $108	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $96	+0% $155	+5% $213	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $197	base $155	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Active
3. 2026-04-15
   price $165,000
4. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2009-09-22
   historical
7. 2009-09-22
   historical
8. 2005-08-29
   soldstatus $110,000
9. 2005-08-29
   soldstatus $110,000
10. 2005-05-19
    listed $110,000
11. 2005-05-19
    listed $110,000
12. 2005-05-14
    historical
13. 2005-02-13
    listed $110,000
14. 2005-02-13
    listed $110,000
15. 2005-01-29
    historical
16. 2004-10-28
    listed $99,000
17. 2004-10-28
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$292/yr (+$24/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,061
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$219
• After-tax cash flow: $2,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amelia County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100180
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,185
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2468
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — Amelia Court House

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #12495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,384

Population outlook (Amelia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,928 people
• By 2030: 12,819 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 12,381 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 10,186 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 9,067 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 13% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amelia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.6% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Current HPI: 184.6872
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $165,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $175,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2005-08-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-08-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-05-19 Listed $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-05-19 Listed $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-05-14 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2005-02-13 Listed $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-02-13 Listed $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-01-29 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2004-10-28 Listed $99,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-10-28 Listed $99,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,061 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.