4632 Slippery Rock Ln

Columbia, VA 23038

$349,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-699/mo
• Annual: $-8,389/yr
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.56%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-699 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (35.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (50.5% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#546 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Goochland County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #29 of 131 in VA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Goochland Middle (math 48% / reading 73%, grade B+, #156 of 342 statewide, top 46%, 573 students, 32% FRL); Goochland High (math 58% / reading 85%, grade B+, #145 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 890 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 322 units permitted in Goochland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Goochland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 17 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $350k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.