4632 Slippery Rock Ln · Columbia, VA 23038

$349,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1994 3.33 ac lot $185/sqft · 12% below area Est $398k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

Key facts

• Private acres
• New carpet
• Ss appliances

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• NEW CARPET
• FRESHLY PAINTED CABINETS
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• SS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-699 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (35.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (50.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#546 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Goochland County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #29 of 131 in VA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Goochland Middle (math 48% / reading 73%, grade B+, #156 of 342 statewide, top 46%, 573 students, 32% FRL); Goochland High (math 58% / reading 85%, grade B+, #145 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 890 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 322 units permitted in Goochland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Goochland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $350k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,349 (50.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.56%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,830
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -12.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $31,696
• Equity at exit: $193,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $136,071
• Equity at exit: $330,764

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23038

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $226,402

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-501	-5% $-600	+0% $-699	+5% $-798	+10% $-897
Rent	-10% $-836	-5% $-768	+0% $-699	+5% $-631	+10% $-562
Rate	-1.0pp $-523	-0.5pp $-610	base $-699	+0.5pp $-790	+1.0pp $-882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    status Active 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

15. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

16. 2026-04-03
    status Active 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

17. 2026-04-03
    price $349,900 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

18. 2026-02-21
    status Pending 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $365,000 Active 1373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1373 chars)

    Welcome to 4632 Slippery Rock Ln in Goochland. This 4 bedroom 2 full bath home is nestled on 3.3 private acres and is move-in ready! Upon entering you will find a spacious living room with new carpet that opens to the dining room with ceiling fan. Kitchen is generous in size and features freshly painted cabinets, butcher block countertops, tile backsplash, SS appliances w TWO refrigerators, an island, and new LVP flooring. Off the kitchen is an additional dining area w new chandelier, and two very sizable cased closets that could be used as pantries, office nooks, or for additional storage. Primary bedroom has new carpet, two closets, and a private full bath with soaking tub, separate shower, linen area, vanity, and ceramic tile floor. On the opposite side of the home are three additional bedrooms, all substantial in size, with new carpet and lighting fixtures, and a second full bath with tub/shower combo, tile surround, and custom sink. A large laundry/mudroom with washer, dryer, & additional storage completes the interior features of this home. Outside are several additional structures including an oversized 2.5+ car detached garage with car lift, and a separate finished building with power. 30-year roof on the main home is only 7 years old. A private retreat in close proximity to I-64, this home is priced to sell and ready for its' new owners!

20. 2025-04-10
    listed $260,000 Active
21. 2014-10-03
    historical
22. 2014-08-18
    soldstatus $95,000
23. 2014-08-15
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 2014-06-13
    historical
25. 2014-03-30
    listed $109,950
26. 2014-03-08
    listed $109,950
27. 2014-01-02
    historical
28. 2013-07-05
    listed $110,000
29. 2010-12-01
    listed $58,000
30. 2010-11-07
    historical
31. 2010-07-31
    historical
32. 2010-07-31
    historical
33. 2010-07-31
    listed
34. 2010-07-31
    listed $89,000
35. 2010-07-31
    historical
36. 2010-07-30
    listed $89,000
37. 2010-07-30
    listed $89,000
38. 2003-05-02
    soldstatus $114,000
39. 2003-05-01
    soldstatus $114,000
40. 2003-05-01
    soldstatus $114,000
41. 2003-01-22
    listed $118,000
42. 2003-01-01
    listed $118,000
43. 2003-01-01
    listed $118,000
44. 2002-12-19
    historical
45. 2002-11-09
    historical
46. 2002-07-09
    listed $129,950
47. 2002-07-09
    listed $129,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,869 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,815/yr (+$151/mo · 172.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$15,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,626
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goochland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101650
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $80,577
• Composite: 58.49/100
• National rank: #999
• State rank: #29 of 131 in VA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #546
• US rank: #25364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,487

Population outlook (Goochland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,743 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 25,755 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 26,341 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 29,328 · +22.0%
• By 2100: 29,432 · +22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Goochland

• 2024 margin: R (+18.6) · D 40.1% · R 58.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.6 2020: R+19.4 2016: R+25.1 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.79%
• Current HPI: 201.8617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+169.3% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $349,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-21 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $365,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $260,000 CAAR
• 2014-10-03 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2014-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-15 Sold (MLS) $95,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-06-13 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2014-03-30 Listed $109,950 CAAR
• 2014-03-08 Listed $109,950 CVRMLS
• 2014-01-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2013-07-05 Listed $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-12-01 Listed $58,000 CAAR
• 2010-11-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-07-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-31 Listed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-31 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-07-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-07-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-07-30 Listed $89,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-07-30 Listed $89,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2003-05-01 Sold (MLS) $114,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-05-01 Sold (MLS) $114,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-01-22 Listed $118,000 CAAR
• 2003-01-01 Listed $118,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-01-01 Listed $118,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-12-19 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2002-11-09 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2002-07-09 Listed $129,950 CVRMLS
• 2002-07-09 Listed $129,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,054 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.